Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Things to do and expect on election day.

First of all, if you haven’t already, go vote! There are many states where your vote will help make a difference. Even if it doesn’t decide the Presidency, every vote counts in the national total and there are local races that need your input.

Second, make sure anyone you know that said they would vote McCain/Palin has done so. If they haven’t – take them and wait with them.

After that –relax. What will be, will be.

I’d love to tell you that McCain will stomp Obama and the Republicans will regain control of the House and Senate. That ain’t gonna happen.

If McCain wins, it will be by a slim electoral margin – I still hold out hope that states like Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin will lean our way and make it more convincing but we shall see. Even without any of those states, McCain can win. If there is any stomping to be done tonight, it will be done by Obama – let’s hope that’s not the case.

Here are some early election results to look for (not exit polls!! Results!!):

New Hampshire – We could really use a win here and it could make for very interesting electoral math if we do. Remember, urban areas tend to submit results before suburban and rural areas so the first reports will probably lean Democratic. If McCain wins here, we are probably in for a very good night. If he loses but is close (say 4 points or less), we are in for a long night of counting, and if he gets trounced here, things aren’t looking good.

Virginia – put very simply, if McCain loses Virginia, we have probably lost the night. The polls have tightened and things look ok but this state is crucial. Remember, early returns will favor Obama.

Georgia – I don’t think there’s any way McCain loses Georgia. If he does, go to bed.

Remember, exit polls mean squat – there are way too many early voters this time around – don’t listen good or bad and it may be good. Ignore the exit polls!
One interesting note: if McCain wins New Hampshire, we may see a scenario where one of Maine’s 4 electoral votes decides the Presidency. It’s highly unlikely but that sure would get people learning even more about the Electoral College.

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