Rasmussen Reports™: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 47%. This is the first time McCain has been within three points of Obama in more than a month and the first time his support has topped 46% since September 24...

Folks, I follow Rasmussen EVERY day and this is MAJOR shift toward McCain. Less than a week ago, they had Obama up by eight and they've had him at 7 or 8 for two weeks straight.

Now if you recall from my earlier post here, I don't believe this is a shift is actual voter preference (although there is some of that going on). I believe this is the beginning of the "reputable" polling organizations like Rasmussen and Zogby shifting their own polling so they can say they were more "accurate" with the final results.

If you notice, the media is beginning to bang the drum a little more for McCain these days - not everywhere - but in small doses.

This race is NOT over and YOU will make a difference. If you can vote early - DO IT! and then take Obama's unofficial national holiday and help get out the vote for John McCain and Sarah Palin.

Just Received Word From An Insider … From The Other Side

Just Received Word From An Insider … From The Other Side

WOOT WOOT WOOT
I have known this for quite some time but for some reason, people are insanely and unhealthily attached to the crapolla from pollsters. Without giving too much away…

[...] she said the results of their polling lead her to believe that McCain will definitely win FL, OH, NC, MO and NV. She says Obama definitely wins New Mexico. She said that Colorado and New Hampshire were absolute dead heats. She said she thinks there is a 55% chance Obama holds on in Pennsylvania and a 75% chance McCain wins Virginia [...]

[...] She absolutely laughed at the public polls showing Obama leading Virginia–and pointed out that all of those polls rely on Dem turnout being +4 and as much as +7, when in 2006, Republicans actually had the advantage by +3. She also pointed out that the numbers for Obama in SWVA look absolutely awful and that McCain is running 10 points better then Allen did in NoVa.

Anyway, her companies conclusion is that the election will come down to Colorado, New Hampshire and the Republican leaning district in Maine, which in her opinion might very well decide the Presidency (apparently the district in Nebraska that Obama thought he might be able to get is now off the table). She said she has very little doubt that the public polling is part of a “concerted voter suppression effort” by the MSM. She said IBD/TIPP was the only outfit doing public polling that was “worth a bucket of warm pxxs”. [...]
Now, one doesn’t need to be a rocket scientist to figure all of this out and I would like to say something as definitively, honestly and succinctly as I possibly can...are you ready?

For all of you naysayers out there in Stupid Land that have already thrown in the towel because McCain isn’t your cup of tea, KISS MY.... Putting out the cowardly tripe and mimicking Harry “Dingy” Reid and saying All IS Lost when the battle lines haven’t even been formed yet, I would like to say the following...it is a good damn thing we never served in the same Company, Brigade, Battalion or even the same TO for that matter. Damn.

What will you ever do with yourselves when the going really gets tough?

While we're at it, how about the Senate?

I decided to make this comment response a new post so that it would appear on the front page. Since I'm putting myself out there with my Presidential predictions, why not prognosticate on the possibilities in the Senate. Thanks to Tim for the request.

I'd be interested in your thoughts on the congressional and senate races? Do you see the "Palin energized" conservatives helping to pick up seats in either? Tim

Author said...

I think the energy level of conservatives can certainly be affected by the Palin pick and there are several places where it can most definitely make a difference in Senatorial races. Congressional House races are just to hard to predict based on any national waves, although they can be more affected by them.

Specifically, North Carolina, Minnesota, Colorado, New Hampshire, Alaska and Louisiana. Unfortunately, almost all of these are seats currently held by Republicans so there aren’t big gains here – mostly non-losses. But considering where we were before, it’s an improvement.

North Carolina: I think Liddy Dole would have been safe here anyway but the polls are close and she could use any boost she can get. The Obama camp seems to think they can win here and I think they are crazy. The increased interest in Palin getting elected (McCain isn’t terribly strong here) should help keep Dole ahead.

Minnesota: Minnesotans are actually looking at the possibility of putting Al (Stuart Smiley) Franken into the Senate. I have to believe that most of them don’t want to do that, although the polls here are close as well. Strong in independent voters, I believe McCain can carry the state and Palin will bring conservatives out that might have otherwise stayed home and help carry the Senate seat for Norm Coleman.

Colorado: I had this one pretty much written off a couple of months ago since Mark Udall was so far ahead in the polls. But the polls are tightening a bit and Bob Schaffer may still have a shot at it. Colorado voted for Bush both times but it will be close. The focus on this race will increase turnout as well. Whether that’s good or bad remains to be seen. Palin will definitely bring out more conservative voters and that should help carry the state for McCain. We’ll see if it’s enough to carry Schaffer.

New Hampshire: Here’s another state that wasn’t looking very good. Incumbent John Sununu beat the person he is currently running against (Jeanne Shaheen) in 2002 for this seat but he is significantly behind in the polls. A couple of things may change this: First, if the Iraq war continues to go well and nationwide support starts to go up (and it appears to be doing so, no matter how hard the media tries to make it otherwise), then Sununu could get a break from the beating he’s been taking as a supporter of the effort. Second, New Hampshire has a wildly independent streak and the combined McCain/Palin ticket may energize a good portion of them to come out and vote. New Hampshire folks LOVE candidates that promise to clean up Washington and stop wasting taxpayer money.

Alaska: If you’d have told me two years ago that Ted Stevens would be fighting for his Senate seat, I’d have said you were nuts. But with the ‘bridge to nowhere’ fiasco and allegations of Stevens receiving illegal gifts as a Senator, he is now the underdog. This is the race, however, that Sarah Palin will most impact. Alaska was reliably in McCain’s column anyway, but the enthusiasm for Palin will bring many party line voters to the booth on election day and will probably carry the day for Stevens, from whom she (Palin) has distanced herself.

Louisiana could be another interesting state for three main reasons. First Mary Landrieu is a big target for the Republicans and she’s not all that popular. Unfortunately, her challenger, John Kennedy (nothing beats name recognition, huh?) switched from being a Democrat to run against her so there isn’t exactly a groundswell of conservative support for him. Second, since Katrina, the state’s population has shifted dramatically and the pollsters just don’t know what to make of the electorate. There could be big surprises from the Big Easy come election night. And finally, Bobby Jindal has done a phenomenal job since taking over as governor. His pre-Gustav response was seen nationwide and he is very popular in the state right now. He’s not running for anything but people may be starting to view Republicans better in New Orleans.

Overall, these factors don’t point toward a tide in one direction or the other. In my dreams, this could turn out to be a MUCH better night for Republicans than most people are expecting. In a perfect storm, we would keep Colorado, North Carolina, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Alaska while taking Louisiana. It looks like the Dems are going to pick up seats in New Mexico and Virginia. If Lieberman stops caucusing with the Democrats, that would give us a net loss of 1 seat with a net-zero in control. Maintaining the status quo while defending 23 seats to the Democrats 12 would be wonderful.