Rasmussen Reports™: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 47%. This is the first time McCain has been within three points of Obama in more than a month and the first time his support has topped 46% since September 24...

Folks, I follow Rasmussen EVERY day and this is MAJOR shift toward McCain. Less than a week ago, they had Obama up by eight and they've had him at 7 or 8 for two weeks straight.

Now if you recall from my earlier post here, I don't believe this is a shift is actual voter preference (although there is some of that going on). I believe this is the beginning of the "reputable" polling organizations like Rasmussen and Zogby shifting their own polling so they can say they were more "accurate" with the final results.

If you notice, the media is beginning to bang the drum a little more for McCain these days - not everywhere - but in small doses.

This race is NOT over and YOU will make a difference. If you can vote early - DO IT! and then take Obama's unofficial national holiday and help get out the vote for John McCain and Sarah Palin.

Don't let ANYONE tell you this race is over!

DRUDGE REPORT 2008®

STRESS BY GALLUP: OBAMA +2

Just Received Word From An Insider … From The Other Side

Just Received Word From An Insider … From The Other Side

WOOT WOOT WOOT
I have known this for quite some time but for some reason, people are insanely and unhealthily attached to the crapolla from pollsters. Without giving too much away…

[...] she said the results of their polling lead her to believe that McCain will definitely win FL, OH, NC, MO and NV. She says Obama definitely wins New Mexico. She said that Colorado and New Hampshire were absolute dead heats. She said she thinks there is a 55% chance Obama holds on in Pennsylvania and a 75% chance McCain wins Virginia [...]

[...] She absolutely laughed at the public polls showing Obama leading Virginia–and pointed out that all of those polls rely on Dem turnout being +4 and as much as +7, when in 2006, Republicans actually had the advantage by +3. She also pointed out that the numbers for Obama in SWVA look absolutely awful and that McCain is running 10 points better then Allen did in NoVa.

Anyway, her companies conclusion is that the election will come down to Colorado, New Hampshire and the Republican leaning district in Maine, which in her opinion might very well decide the Presidency (apparently the district in Nebraska that Obama thought he might be able to get is now off the table). She said she has very little doubt that the public polling is part of a “concerted voter suppression effort” by the MSM. She said IBD/TIPP was the only outfit doing public polling that was “worth a bucket of warm pxxs”. [...]
Now, one doesn’t need to be a rocket scientist to figure all of this out and I would like to say something as definitively, honestly and succinctly as I possibly can...are you ready?

For all of you naysayers out there in Stupid Land that have already thrown in the towel because McCain isn’t your cup of tea, KISS MY.... Putting out the cowardly tripe and mimicking Harry “Dingy” Reid and saying All IS Lost when the battle lines haven’t even been formed yet, I would like to say the following...it is a good damn thing we never served in the same Company, Brigade, Battalion or even the same TO for that matter. Damn.

What will you ever do with yourselves when the going really gets tough?

Point of No Return

Point of No Return by Mark Steyn on National Review Online

Across the electric wires, the hum is ceaseless: Give it up, loser. Don’t go down with the ship when it’s swept away by the Obama tsunami. According to newspaper reports, polls show that most people believe newspaper reports claiming that most people believe polls showing that most people have read newspaper reports agreeing that polls show he’s going to win.
In the words of Publishers’ Clearing House, he may already have won! The battleground states have all turned blue, the reddest of red states are rapidly purpling. Don’t you know, little fool? You never can win. Use your mentality, wake up to reality. Why be the last right-wing pundit to sign up with Small-Government Conservatives For The Liberal Supermajority? We still need pages for the coronation, and there’s a pair of velvet knickerbockers with your name on it.

Signs Pointing To A McCain Victory

American Thinker: Signs Pointing To A McCain Victory

...Don't believe the Obama hype coming out of the mainstream media. If the media were truly objective and unbiased, they would be covering the race much differently. Instead of trying to browbeat the country into voting for Obama, they would be analyzing the issues and factors that favor and disfavor both candidates. Instead of focusing on college students and intellectuals, they would be focusing on working-class and middle-class voters, especially "Hillary Democrats." These voters may very well determine the election. Yet this huge story is being ignored by the MSM.

Come here...I wanna show you something.

I wanted to take a quick look back at how the polls were shaping up for George W. Bush back in 2004 against John Kerry. The graphics below come from a site that I frequently look to guage the direction of the polls. They gather several different polling organizations (Rasmuusem, Zogby, CNN, Gallup, etc.) and average things out to come up with an electoral projection.

I have chosen to display the map the showed Kerry with one if his biggest electoral leads during the 6 weeks running up to the election. This map shows Kerry getting 289 electoral votes in winning the election. In the process, it shows him taking Florida, Ohio, Iowa and a tossup in New Mexico. Kerry lost all of these states and the election. In all, at least 10 states' final results were significantly better for George W. Bush than these polls showed. Only New Hampshire, which was listed as a toss-up, went to Kerry.
















Now...look at the date of this poll average - November 1, 2004 - the DAY BEFORE THE ELECTION. Less than 24 hours before 120 million Americans went out to vote, the polling organizations had called it wrong!

This is how it ended up:
















And remember, even on election day - their exit polls were way off AGAIN!

Don't let anyone tell you what to think - just do what you need to do.

Obama Can't Win Against Palin - by Karl Rove

Obama Can't Win Against Palin - WSJ.com

Of all the advantages Gov. Sarah Palin has brought to the GOP ticket, the most important may be that she has gotten into Barack Obama's head. How else to explain Sen. Obama's decision to go one-on-one against "Sarah Barracuda," captain of the Wasilla High state basketball champs?

It's a matchup he'll lose. If Mr. Obama wants to win, he needs to remember he's running against John McCain for president, not Mrs. Palin for vice president.

The "evil genius" gets it right, as usual.  I just wish he would wait until AFTER the election to try to help Obama.

Zogby International: McCain/Palin up by 4%

Zogby International

The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7% support, compared to 45.9% backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4% either favored someone else or were unsure.

Another useless poll but keep watching. This is the time where the pollsters have to start slowly working their way toward reality lest they look bad against the actual results in election day.

Gallup Daily: McCain Moves Ahead, 48% to 45%

Gallup Daily: McCain Moves Ahead, 48% to 45%

The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows John McCain moving ahead of Barack Obama, 48% to 45%, when registered voters are asked for whom they would vote if the presidential election were held today.

I'm still not a big fan of polls but I like the way they're trending. Yes, it's a convention bounce. Let's see how long it holds...

While we're at it, how about the Senate?

I decided to make this comment response a new post so that it would appear on the front page. Since I'm putting myself out there with my Presidential predictions, why not prognosticate on the possibilities in the Senate. Thanks to Tim for the request.

I'd be interested in your thoughts on the congressional and senate races? Do you see the "Palin energized" conservatives helping to pick up seats in either? Tim

Author said...

I think the energy level of conservatives can certainly be affected by the Palin pick and there are several places where it can most definitely make a difference in Senatorial races. Congressional House races are just to hard to predict based on any national waves, although they can be more affected by them.

Specifically, North Carolina, Minnesota, Colorado, New Hampshire, Alaska and Louisiana. Unfortunately, almost all of these are seats currently held by Republicans so there aren’t big gains here – mostly non-losses. But considering where we were before, it’s an improvement.

North Carolina: I think Liddy Dole would have been safe here anyway but the polls are close and she could use any boost she can get. The Obama camp seems to think they can win here and I think they are crazy. The increased interest in Palin getting elected (McCain isn’t terribly strong here) should help keep Dole ahead.

Minnesota: Minnesotans are actually looking at the possibility of putting Al (Stuart Smiley) Franken into the Senate. I have to believe that most of them don’t want to do that, although the polls here are close as well. Strong in independent voters, I believe McCain can carry the state and Palin will bring conservatives out that might have otherwise stayed home and help carry the Senate seat for Norm Coleman.

Colorado: I had this one pretty much written off a couple of months ago since Mark Udall was so far ahead in the polls. But the polls are tightening a bit and Bob Schaffer may still have a shot at it. Colorado voted for Bush both times but it will be close. The focus on this race will increase turnout as well. Whether that’s good or bad remains to be seen. Palin will definitely bring out more conservative voters and that should help carry the state for McCain. We’ll see if it’s enough to carry Schaffer.

New Hampshire: Here’s another state that wasn’t looking very good. Incumbent John Sununu beat the person he is currently running against (Jeanne Shaheen) in 2002 for this seat but he is significantly behind in the polls. A couple of things may change this: First, if the Iraq war continues to go well and nationwide support starts to go up (and it appears to be doing so, no matter how hard the media tries to make it otherwise), then Sununu could get a break from the beating he’s been taking as a supporter of the effort. Second, New Hampshire has a wildly independent streak and the combined McCain/Palin ticket may energize a good portion of them to come out and vote. New Hampshire folks LOVE candidates that promise to clean up Washington and stop wasting taxpayer money.

Alaska: If you’d have told me two years ago that Ted Stevens would be fighting for his Senate seat, I’d have said you were nuts. But with the ‘bridge to nowhere’ fiasco and allegations of Stevens receiving illegal gifts as a Senator, he is now the underdog. This is the race, however, that Sarah Palin will most impact. Alaska was reliably in McCain’s column anyway, but the enthusiasm for Palin will bring many party line voters to the booth on election day and will probably carry the day for Stevens, from whom she (Palin) has distanced herself.

Louisiana could be another interesting state for three main reasons. First Mary Landrieu is a big target for the Republicans and she’s not all that popular. Unfortunately, her challenger, John Kennedy (nothing beats name recognition, huh?) switched from being a Democrat to run against her so there isn’t exactly a groundswell of conservative support for him. Second, since Katrina, the state’s population has shifted dramatically and the pollsters just don’t know what to make of the electorate. There could be big surprises from the Big Easy come election night. And finally, Bobby Jindal has done a phenomenal job since taking over as governor. His pre-Gustav response was seen nationwide and he is very popular in the state right now. He’s not running for anything but people may be starting to view Republicans better in New Orleans.

Overall, these factors don’t point toward a tide in one direction or the other. In my dreams, this could turn out to be a MUCH better night for Republicans than most people are expecting. In a perfect storm, we would keep Colorado, North Carolina, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Alaska while taking Louisiana. It looks like the Dems are going to pick up seats in New Mexico and Virginia. If Lieberman stops caucusing with the Democrats, that would give us a net loss of 1 seat with a net-zero in control. Maintaining the status quo while defending 23 seats to the Democrats 12 would be wonderful.

Election Prediction - Going out on a limb...

OK, folks. It's time to make a prediction for the 2008 Presidential Election. The conventions are over. The bounces are still bouncing. And the pundits have begun all their 'punditry'.

John McCain and Sarah Palin will win this election with a nationwide vote of 52% to 47% over Obama with 1% going to Nader, Barr, et al.

The electoral map will look something like this:



I strongly believe that McCain/Palin already have 265 electoral votes on their side (the dark red). All they need to do is win any one of the remaining light red states (unless it's New Hampshire, then they would need one more to avoid a tie).

By the way, you can make your own map at Real Clear Politics

Now you can begin to see why I am so optimistic about the outcome of this election.

Of course, my opinion and $4.00 (at Starbuck's) will get you a cup of coffee.

(Does anyone really like Starbucks coffee? I thought people just drank it to look cool - sort of like smoking in high school...)

Gallup Daily: No Bounce for Obama in Post Biden Tracking

from Gallup

McCain creeps ahead, 46% to 44%

Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviewing from Saturday, Sunday, and Monday indicates that Barack Obama has received no bounce in voter support from his selection of Sen. Joe Biden to be his vice presidential running mate. The race remains virtually tied with John McCain now slightly ahead 46%-44%. More ...

Anyone that knows me knows how I feel about polls. I think any one particular poll is completely useless because of bias in the questions, the size of the samples and the variations between organizations.

However, I do believe that major trends can be uncovered by looking at many polls from several organizations over time. This poll from Gallup is released every day and is a rolling, three-day poll. Rasmussen reports is my other favorite of these 3-day rolling polls.

This is the first time that McCain has been ahead in the Gallup poll since he and Obama became their parties presumptive nominees and it represents an 8-point swing in the last couple of weeks.

Getting no bounce from naming Biden does not bode well for Obama. If there isn't a significant bounce following his acceptance speech at the Democratic convention - this race is over.

You read it right, this race will be over.

I'll be posting some additional polls and comparisons to 2004 to support this claim in the near future.