Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Gallup Daily: No Bounce for Obama in Post Biden Tracking

from Gallup

McCain creeps ahead, 46% to 44%

Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviewing from Saturday, Sunday, and Monday indicates that Barack Obama has received no bounce in voter support from his selection of Sen. Joe Biden to be his vice presidential running mate. The race remains virtually tied with John McCain now slightly ahead 46%-44%. More ...

Anyone that knows me knows how I feel about polls. I think any one particular poll is completely useless because of bias in the questions, the size of the samples and the variations between organizations.

However, I do believe that major trends can be uncovered by looking at many polls from several organizations over time. This poll from Gallup is released every day and is a rolling, three-day poll. Rasmussen reports is my other favorite of these 3-day rolling polls.

This is the first time that McCain has been ahead in the Gallup poll since he and Obama became their parties presumptive nominees and it represents an 8-point swing in the last couple of weeks.

Getting no bounce from naming Biden does not bode well for Obama. If there isn't a significant bounce following his acceptance speech at the Democratic convention - this race is over.

You read it right, this race will be over.

I'll be posting some additional polls and comparisons to 2004 to support this claim in the near future.

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