OK, folks. It's time to make a prediction for the 2008 Presidential Election. The conventions are over. The bounces are still bouncing. And the pundits have begun all their 'punditry'.
John McCain and Sarah Palin will win this election with a nationwide vote of 52% to 47% over Obama with 1% going to Nader, Barr, et al.
The electoral map will look something like this:
I strongly believe that McCain/Palin already have 265 electoral votes on their side (the dark red). All they need to do is win any one of the remaining light red states (unless it's New Hampshire, then they would need one more to avoid a tie).
By the way, you can make your own map at Real Clear Politics
Now you can begin to see why I am so optimistic about the outcome of this election.
Of course, my opinion and $4.00 (at Starbuck's) will get you a cup of coffee.
(Does anyone really like Starbucks coffee? I thought people just drank it to look cool - sort of like smoking in high school...)
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2 comments:
I'd be interested in your thoughts on the congressional and senate races? Do you see the "Palin energized" conservatives helping to pick up seats in either?
Tim Goetz
I think the energy level of conservatives can certainly be affected by the Palin pick and there are several places where it can most definitely make a difference in Senatorial races.
Specifically, North Carolina, Minnesota, Colorado, New Hampshire and Alaska. Unfortunately, most of these are all seats currently held by Republicans so there aren’t big gains here – mostly non-losses. But considering where we were before, it’s an improvement.
North Carolina: I think Liddy Dole would have been safe here anyway but the polls are close and she could use any boost she can get. The Obama camp seems to think they can win here and I think they are crazy. The increased interest in Palin getting elected (McCain isn’t terribly strong here) should help keep Dole ahead.
Minnesota: Minnesotans are actually looking at the possibility of putting Al (Stuart Smiley) Franken into the Senate. I have to believe that most of them don’t want to do that, although the polls here are close as well. Strong in independent voters, I believe McCain can carry the state and Palin will bring conservatives out that might have otherwise stayed home and help carry the Senate seat for Norm Coleman.
Colorado: I had this one pretty much written off a couple of months ago since Mark Udall was so far ahead in the polls. But the polls are tightening a bit and Bob Schaffer may still have a shot at it. Colorado voted for Bush both times but it will be close. The focus on this race will increase turnout as well. Whether that’s good or bad remains to be seen. Palin will definitely bring out more conservative voters and that should help carry the state for McCain. We’ll see if it’s enough to carry Schaffer.
New Hampshire: Here’s another state that wasn’t looking very good. Incumbent John Sununu beat the person he is currently running against (Jeanne Shaheen) in 2002 for this seat but he is significantly behind in the polls. A couple of things may change this: First, if the Iraq war continues to go well and nationwide support starts to go up (and it appears to be doing so, no matter how hard the media tries to make it otherwise), then Sununu could get a break from the beating he’s been taking as a supporter of the effort. Second, New Hampshire has a wildly independent streak and the combined McCain/Palin ticket may energize a good portion of them to come out and vote. New Hampshire folks LOVE candidates that promise to clean up Washington and stop wasting taxpayer money.
Alaska: If you’d have told me two years ago that Ted Stevens would be fighting for his Senate seat, I’d have said you were nuts. But with the ‘bridge to nowhere’ fiasco and allegations of Stevens receiving illegal gifts as a Senator, he is now the underdog. This is the race, however, that Sarah Palin will most impact. Alaska was reliably in McCain’s column anyway, but the enthusiasm for Palin will bring many party line voters to the booth on election day and will probably carry the day for Stevens, from whom she (Palin) has distanced herself.
Louisiana could be another interesting state for three main reasons. First Mary Landrieu is a big target for the Republicans and she’s not all that popular. Unfortunately, her challenger, John Kennedy (nothing beats name recognition, huh?) switched from being a Democrat to run against her so there isn’t exactly a groundswell of conservative support for him. Second, since Katrina, the state’s population has shifted dramatically and the pollsters just don’t know what to make of the electorate. There could be big surprises from the Big Easy come election night. And finally, Bobby Jindal has done a phenomenal job since taking over as governor. His pre-Gustav response was seen nationwide and he is very popular in the state right now. He’s not running for anything but people may be starting to view Republicans better in New Orleans.
Overall, these factors don’t point toward a tide in one direction or the other. In my dreams, this could turn out to be a MUCH better night for Republicans than most people are expecting. In a perfect storm, we would keep Colorado, North Carolina, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Alaska while taking Louisiana. It looks like the Dems are going to pick up seats in New Mexico and Virginia. If Lieberman stops caucusing with the Democrats, that would give us a net loss of 1 seat with a net-zero in control.
Maintaining the status quo while defending 23 seats to the Democrats 12 would be wonderful.
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